In this final part of our article on the parallels between Big Pharma and ELT Publishers we want to draw on the analysis made in Parts 1, 2 and 3 to explore possible future trends in the two industries.
Research and Development (The Limits of Innovation)
Research and development is very costly process for all industries. In the pharmaceutical industry it is particularly expensive as companies must amass a large quantity of data to establish that the product they are selling is both efficacious and safe. To recoup investments governments grant patents (lasting 20 years) which ensure that the molecule used in treatment cannot be used by a rival. Similarly, in agreeing the price and reimbursement of the medicine governments are minded to include the costs of Research and and Development (R/D) in the figure awarded. Indeed, it is often argued that the costs of failed drugs (those that prove unsuccesful in trials) are also to some degree computed into the price of new drugs in order to encourage further “innovation”. However, the government is also keen to encourage the availability of “generic” medicines (ie medicines which use the same active ingredients) in order to reduce costs. As it usually takes at least 8 years to carry out all necessary trials of a “molecule and its indicated use” and be accepted by governmental medical agencies, the pharmaceutical company has a 12 year window in which to maximise sales before the appearance of the much cheaper generics.
Importantly, pharmaceutical companies indulge in extensive “evergreening” strategies to try and extend the patents on their medicines. This consists of new formulations (for example long acting injectables instead of tablets) designed to make the treatment more effective or new indications for use. An example of the latter would be the use of sildenafil, which was first approved for use in the US in 1998 for the treatment of erectile disfunction (marketted under the trade name of Viagra) and approved in US again in 2005 for treatment of pulmonary hypertension. Pharmaceutical companies can also combine molecules in treatment and thus expand the lifecycle of their products before generics, as was the case with Symbyax—a combination of the drugs olanzapine (Zyprexa) and fluoxetine (Prozac)—which now combined is indicated for the treatment of bipolar disorder.
Considering the above, it would be understandable if there was a significant decline in the availibility of new drugs (not counting generics) on the market. However, the decline or increase of new drugs is notoriously difficult to quantify. It will often depend on the start and end points of the period under evaluation as some periods will see a flood of new medicines whilst other periods will see a palpable drought. Similarly, some periods will see the arrival of “orphan treatments” (treatments which didn’t previously exist for a condition) and other periods just one more drug amongst many already on the market. What is clear though is that pharmaceutical companies will be principally driven by foccussing their R/D on maximising profit for their patented molecules as opposed to being driven to solve particular health problems. Curiously in the UK, the biggest funder of medical research is neither the state nor industry but charities. In 2017, UK charities poured 1.6 billion GBPs (2.1 billion US dollars) into medcal research. The relationship between industry and charities can often be complex with charities feeling that they must remain independent if they are not to become a low-paid servant of Big Pharma interests.
Where have all the new titles gone?
The world of ELT Publishing is clearly not so constrained by issues of safety and efficacy. However, like Big Pharma the publishing giants experience similar tensions with the high costs and lengthy process of R/D and the need to recover those costs once that product is on the market. ELT also faces its own challenges in maximising its “patent,” in ensuring that sufficient people buy its product rather than accessing pirated versions of its product through the internet. While outside the “advanced core” of nations there is an issue of pirated medicines (as indeed there is a problem of parallel trade between countries – wholesalers buying from acountry where the medicine is cheaper) generally Big pharma does not face (during the period of patent) the same problems of ELT Publishing in trying to protect its copyright.
What is clear is that ELT publishing will prefer to maximise sales on its proven best-sellers by issuing new editions of the same or editions especially adapted for certain markets. This might be called the Lindy Effect where those nonperishable goods which last for longest are likely to last for longer still.
This is clearly a conservative influence on the market but it would be wrong to suggest that companies are not trying to develop some new products. Interestingly, in this June’s edition of El Gazette, Melanie Butler informs us:
With all the major British ELT publishers’ increasingly focused on Higher Ed, English language publishing has taken a backseat, allowing smaller players to eat into the market. At this year’s London Book Fair, for example, the biggest ELT display we found belonged to MM publications, with two other European providers, Express and Global ELT, also having a strong presence.
Europe’s largest specialist ELT book distributor, BEBC in Bournemouth, confirmed to the Gazette that the big British publishing houses are losing EU market share to publishers who started out publishing for a local ELT market: Greece in the case of MM, Express and Global, Italy in the case of ELI and Black Cat.
This was affter informing us:
McGraw Hill Education and Cengage Learning are to merge, according to the Financial Times. The new company, which will include National Geographic Learning, will have projected cash earnings of US$3 billion. The strategy behind the merger is to expand the number of students, mostly in Higher Education, who subscribe to Cengage’s textbook subscription service, seen as a solution to the ‘affordability issue’ in Higher Education.
So in effect what we are seeing as Big ELT publishers move into certain areas which they deem more profitable in the long term, space is opened in the market for the rise of certain new titles by emerging companies. This will clearly offer a threat to the established order (cutting into sales of existing products) but as large sums of capital are required to expand, don’t be surprised to see more mergers and takeovers. Indeed, the emergence of such “competitors” can be seen as R/D in itself because if successful, the larger companies can just swallow them up by their easier access to the necessary capital required to expand. What is clear is that under capitalism there is a secular trend towards concentration of wealth and resources into fewer and fewer hands. We would argue that this concentration ultimately leads to less innovation and differentiation rather than a proliferation of new dynamic teaching resources. Indeed, like Big Pharma, more innovation is likely to come from outside the industry rather than inside it because pharmaceutical industries are more concerned with maximising profit than tackling the teaching challenges we face.
The rise of Biotech / Edtech
Ironically our last parallel between the two industries is one where both industries in their current form might cease to exist. For the pharmaceutical industry there is the challenge of Biotech companies. This is how Forbes describe it:
Despite the growth of the world’s population and the increasing demand for drugs, the pharmaceutical industry has traditionally not innovated at the same pace. According to the BBC, Dr. Kees de Joncheere from the World Health Organization stated, “The system [pharmaceutical industry] has served us well in terms of developing good new medicines, but in the past 10–20 years there has been very little breakthrough in innovation.” From 2006-2015, the average number of approved new molecular entities (NME) and new biologic license application (BLA) filings by the FDA was approximately 32, and research (via the Washington Post) indicates that 78% of patents approved by the FDA correspond to medications already in the market.
As explained before we have to be careful about extrapolating from a certain time series but interestingly Forbes go on to claim:
Over the past couple of years, we have seen a shift. In 2017 and 2018, the number of approved NMEs and BLAs increased to 46 and 59 respectively, compared to 45 in 2015. In 2018, 19 of the 59 novel approved drugs were considered first-in-class, 34 received orphan designation for treating rare diseases, and 24 received fast-track designation as they are intended for serious conditions with unmet medical needs. While this is encouraging, it is important to note that a 2019 IQVIA Institute report found that 64% of FDA-approved drugs in 2018 (via Fierce Biotech) originated from emerging biopharma companies.
This is not to say that Big Pharma will not attempt to takeover emerging biotech companies or that significant mergers will not occur. But it is to say that the Biotech model is likely to disrupt and possibly disperse the existing ways Big Pharma operates. Again Forbes put it very clearly:
……………pharma has traditionally been attracted to large, profitable markets and developing drugs that are of “blockbuster status” — usually at the expense of smaller markets with less reimbursement, and less opportunity to drive return on investment. It is hard to imagine a shift focused on prevention given the industry’s appetite for large markets. However, with the catalytic effect of entirely new therapies, advances in technology and the consumerization of health, I expect more targeted drugs that will prevent disease and address the needs of specific groups of patients in other global markets………….
According to a recent article in Science Daily, “Sequencing of the human genome and the development of powerful and affordable DNA sequencing technologies has ushered in a new era of precision oncology, in which patients are treated with customized therapies designed to target the specific mutations within their tumor.” Companies that can design drugs that target disease at the molecular level while minimizing off-target side effects and consider structural pharmacogenomics could transform the structure of the pharmaceutical industry and cure diseases with a significant level of precision.
We have to ask, therefore, whether the world of Edtech with its customised learning paths and low marginal cost production offers a similar threat of disruption to ELT Publishing. We know that ELT Publishing has sought to incorporate greater levels of on-line learning and compuuter-aided teaching resources but to what extent will Edtech come to replace ELT publishing rather than be incorporated inside.
The simple fact is Edtech is growing at enormous rate, especially in Asia. According Techcrunch:
In 2016, global investments in Chinese edtech companies rose to $1.2 billion, according to Goldman Sachs — to put that into perspective, that’s more than triple the amount raised in 2014 and comparable to Lyft’s most recent funding round. Going forward, the edtech industry in China is expected to grow 20 percent annually, while a joint report released by Google and KPMG estimates that India’s online education market will rise more than 6x to $1.96 billion over the next four years. The entire Asia-Pacific region is projected to represent 54 percent of the global edtech market by 2020.
And:
Asia also is becoming more global-thinking, and nowhere is this more apparent than in China. English language-learning education platforms are on the rise: there are 300 million English language learners in China. Taiwan-based Tutor Group, the biggest English-learning education platform in the world, boasts a total enrollment that could place it alongside UC Berkeley and the University of Georgia. Meanwhile, VIPKID provides video English tutoring sessions for students between the age of five and 12, concentrating on the early-childhood education market (which, thanks to the implementation of China’s new two-child policy, is also poised to break out).
Interestingly this is what David Graddol (the renowned expert of future trends in ELT) said on the subject in 2016 shortly before his untimely death
..EdTech provides opportunities for the big companies, as creators of platforms with very glossy materials, and this has several consequences. One is that their interest, the interest of the big corporations, is to push for some kind of standardized national curriculum… one of their big offers is not just materials and but also in adaptive testing, which is embedded within these platforms. They claim this can provide personalised learning…
Another thing is that they move to the situation when they say: Well, actually you don’t need a teacher. They are selling packages to the educational authorities saying: You know you have this problem with teachers. They are really expensive and difficult to find. But you actually don’t really need highly qualified English teachers in the classrooms, you just really need learning managers. In the universities they are doing the same. You can employ PhD students as teaching assistants. The professional status of the teacher is being eroded and the position of English teachers especially is being eroded through the use of technology. Another thing I have seen is that companies are interested in selling curriculum across the board. They are not English specialists. English is just one of many subjects, and they want to sell a complete package. This is squeezing out the specialist English publishers and textbook writers.
Where we would disagree with Graddol is his claim that not needing “highly qualified teachers” is something new. ELT Publishers have been working for years on the idea that, on the whole, teachers are mere adjuncts to their books. The challenge to ELT Publishers is the power of Edtech ‘s claim to select materials according to indidualised data and not to an aggregate student (who doesn’t really exist in any meaningful way). In this way Edtech mirrors Biotech’s claim of personalized medicine and disrupts existing ways of operating.
In conclusion
We are not here to trumpet the end of ELT Publishing and embrace the” liberating possibilities” of Edtech. We hope our article in all four parts has shown how profit drives the TEFL Industry and none more so than in ELT Publishing. In doing so, we do not want to raise hopes that another profit driven industry, Edtech, will serve either teachers or students better. Having said this, we will not shed a tear should ELT Publishing collapse, it has served us all badly and is a key player in low standards and bad pay. Yet, it has served us. Rather like the pharmaceutical industry has served us, we could have been served so much better if these two industries had not been (and continue to be) driven by profit.
As teachers we need to radically rethink how we prepare ourselves to meet the needs of our students. The current model of depending on outdated ideas of how languages are learned (as embodied in teacher training organisations and reinforced by the practical aid of pre-packaged course books) will no longer serve us. Of course, we could become low-paid learning managers to support on-line learning platforms (popping up for skype tutorials) but in many ways we have been there already. What is required is a far more radical version of our role, where what we have to offer and the appreciation of what we have to offer is so much greater.
Crucially, we can’t start doing things in a new way until we stop doing things in the old way. We need a radical break with existing ELT institutions, including the ELT Publishers and their sponsored “Teachers Conferences”.


